How Do Policymakers Update?

Abstract

Evidence-based policymaking requires not only evidence, but also for policymakers to update appropriately based on that evidence. We examine how policymakers, researchers, and others update in response to results from multiple studies, using a unique opportunity to run an experiment on policymakers. We find evidence of “variance neglect”, a bias similar to extension neglect in which confidence intervals are ignored. We also find evidence of increased updating on positive results. This means that policymakers might be biased towards those interventions with a greater dispersion of results. We test ways to mitigate the observed biases.

 

About the Speaker

Dr. Eva Vivalt is Assistant Professor at Australian National University and the founder of AidGrade. She has a Ph.D. in Economics and an M.A. in Mathematics from the University of California, Berkeley and spent two years as a Young Professional at the World Bank. Her research focuses on development economics, policy, and behavioural biases.

Thumbnail
How Do Policymakers Update?
Event Date (for sorting)
Year
Event Images
Event Image
Event Image
Event Image
Header
Joint Seminar
Speaker(s)
Prof. Eva Vivalt
Australian National University
Event Date (for display)
4 May 2017 (Thursday)
Venue
Room 3598 (lift 27/28), Academic Building, HKUST
Additional Field (if any)
Label
Co-organizer
Value
Division of Social Science and Institute for Public Policy
The lecture is free and open to all. Seating is on a first come, first served basis.
Off
Light refreshments will be served from xx:xx:xx to xx:xx:xx
Off
Time
15:00 – 16:30
Posting Date
-